150 Odds

Well, Holloway has the plus sign in front of his odds, so he is the underdog to win, while Poirier is the favourite. In the cases listed above, a successful $100 wager on Holloway would yield a total profit of $240, while you would need to bet $300 on Poirier in order to have a chance of winning $100 in profit back. With decimal and fractional odds, it’s easy to calculate the return. For example, betting $10 on odds of 1.50 will give you a return of $15 (that’s the original stake back + a profit of $5). The fractional equivalent of 1.50 would be 1/2 – you get 1 unit in return for each 2 staked. The whole thing’s a bit different from American odds.

• Filthy 150 Odds
• 150 Toddler Tunes
• Pennzoil 150 Odds
• What Does +250 Odds Mean

The odds converter tool in this page will convert odds from any of the three main formats into the other formats.
It will also calculate the relevant implied probability too.
To use it, simply enter the odds you wish to convert in the appropriate box, and then click the “Convert Odds” button. It’s as easy as that!

If you came to this page specifically looking for a tool to
convert odds, then it’s likely that you already have a
fundamental understanding of what odds are and how they work in
relation to sports betting. If this is a subject that you’re not
particularly familiar with, however, then you might want to read
the following article from our beginner’s guide to sports
betting.

Overview of Different Odds Formats

If you live in the United States, then simply knowing the
moneyline odds will suffice, as this is the primary format used
by the limited number of gambling sites available for US
residents. Likewise, if you live in the United Kingdom, then you
only really need to know how fractional odds work. If you live
in Europe, then the decimal format is the one that will be most
important for you to understand.

With all that being said, it’s still a good idea to be
familiarized with how each format works. Many online betting
sites will allow you to choose the format that their odds are
displayed in. Please keep in mind that the conversation may
round in their favor.. For example, most US friendly sites offer
moneyline odds of -110 when betting points spreads. If you
choose to bet in the decimal format instead, then you’ll often
be given odds of 1.90. The true conversion is 1.9091 though, so
you’ll potentially lose a small percentage of your winnings if
you bet based on their conversion.

Therefore, it can be an advantage to use the primary format
offered by an online bookmaker, which is why it pays to make
sure you understand each of the different formats. We’ve
explained them all below for you.

American Odds/Moneyline Odds

Odds in this format are expressed as either a positive number
or a negative number. When they are a positive number, the
number represents how much in winnings is paid per $100 staked.
The following examples illustrate how positive moneyline odds
work.

When they are a negative number, the number represents the
amount of money that needs to be staked in order to win $100.
The following examples illustrate how negative moneyline odds
work.

Please see our article on calculating payouts from moneyline
odds for details on how to work out the potential winnings from
wagers using this format.

Decimal Odds

This is the most popular odds format outside of the United
States and is sometimes referred to as European odds. It’s a
very simple format where the odds are expressed as a single
positive number, usually to two decimal places. This number
states how much a winning bet returns (including the initial
stake) for each unit wagered. The following examples illustrate
the decimal format in practice.

Our article explaining how to calculate payouts from decimal
odds will teach you how to work out the potential returns from
wagers placed using this format.

Fractional Odds

Fractional odds are mostly used in the UK, but lately the
decimal format has been becoming more popular. Odds in this
format are displayed as a fraction, as the name suggests. The
first number of the fraction shows how much you can win per the
second number staked. This sounds more complicated that it
actually is and the easiest way to understand this format is
simply to look at some examples.

Please note that when the second number of the fraction is
higher than the first, it means the odds are less than even
money. This is referred to as odds on (as opposed to odds
against), and is the equivalent of when moneyline odds are a
negative number or when decimal odds are a number less than 2.

Odds Conversion Math

Our conversion tool is the easiest way to change odds between
formats but there will be times when you don’t have access to
it. When you’re at a Las Vegas sportsbook or a high street
bookmaker, you may need to be able to do these conversions in
your head. For this reason, we’ll run through the math required
to convert each format into all of the other formats.

Converting Moneyline Odds

To Decimal

The calculations required to convert from moneyline odds
changes depending on whether the odds are positive or negative.
To convert positive odds into decimal odds, the following
calculation is required.

Example: Converting +175

(+175 + 100) / 100 = 2.75

For negative odds, we ignore the minus symbol and use the
following formula.

Example: Converting -110

(110 + 100) / 110 = 1.909

To Fractional

When converting from the moneyline format into the fractional
format, the calculations again depend on whether the odds are
positive or negative. To convert positive odds, you simply
create a fraction by putting the relevant number over 100 and
then simplifying the fraction if possible.

300/100 is simplified to 3/1

To convert negative odds, you create a fraction by putting
100 over the relevant number (ignoring the negative sign).
Again, you then need to simplify the fraction if possible.

100/110 is simplified to 10/11

Converting Decimal Odds

To Moneyline

The method required to convert the decimal format over to the
moneyline format is dependent on whether the odds are greater
than 2.0 or not. We’ll look at how to convert odds of 2.0 or
less first. To start with, you have to carry out the following
calculation.

After doing this calculation, the odds are rounded and a
negative sign must be added.

100 / (1.95 – 1) = 105.25

To convert odds of greater than 2.00, you must start with the
following calculation.

To convert odds of greater than 2.00, you must start with the following calculation.

You then add a positive sign to the result, as shown in this
example.

(2.45 – 1) x 100 = 145

Positive sign added = +145

To Fractional

The first step in converting from decimal to fractional
format is to create a fraction by using the formula.

This will often create a fraction that includes a decimal,
which isn’t a proper fraction. To overcome this, the next step
is to multiply both sides of the fraction by 100. Finally, the
fraction needs to be simplified. The following example
illustrates this better than any written explanation can.

(1.45 – 1) / 1 = 0.45/1

Multiply both sides by 100 = 45/100

Simplified = 9/20

Converting Fractional Odds

Before we get into the math involved here, you need to
understand the terms numerator and denominator. In this context,
the numerator is the first number in the fraction and the
denominator is the second number in the fraction. With odds of
2/1, for example, 2 is the numerator and 1 is the denominator.

To Moneyline

There are two methods needed for converting from the
fractional to the moneyline format. The first is for when the
numerator is greater than the denominator. The following formula
needs to be used in the beginning.

A positive sign then needs to be added to create the
moneyline odds, as per the following example.

(6 / 4) x 100 = 150

Positive sign added = +150

The second method is for when the denominator is larger than
the numerator. In these cases, the following formula needs to be
used.

A positive sign then needs to be added to create the correct
moneyline odds. This is illustrated in the following example.

100 / (2 / 5) = 250

Negative sign added = -250

To Decimal

Converting odds from the fractional format to the decimal
format is relatively simple and it requires just the following
formula.

(11 / 10) + 1 = 1.10

Implied Probability Explained

Implied probability in relation to sports betting is
basically the implication of the odds as it relates to the
chances of an outcome happening. We’ll cover this in more detail
shortly, but first let’s look at how to calculate it. It’s
easiest to determine implied probability from odds in the
decimal format, using the following simple formula.

What this example shows us is that the implied probability of
2.50 odds is 0.40 (or 40% if expressed as a percentage). This
means that odds of 2.50 on any possible outcome imply that the
chance of that outcome happening is roughly 40%. So if, for
example, a tennis player is at 2.50 to win an upcoming match,
the implication is that he has a 40% chance of actually winning
that match.

You can read more about implied probability in this article on probability in sports betting. The article also
covers expected value, which is a related topic that you should definitely learn about if you want to be a
successful bettor.

Understanding Vig

When looking at the odds set by bookmakers, it’s important to
recognize that implied probability is rarely an entirely
accurate reflection of the real chances of a wager winning. This
is because bookmakers always try to set the odds at levels that
are lower than they actually should be in relation to real
probability. If their view was that a soccer team had a 60%
chance of winning a match, for example, they wouldn’t offer odds
that exactly reflected that chance. Their odds would be lower,
as this is how they make money successfully.

By reducing the odds relative to the probability of an
outcome happening, bookmakers effectively charge a commission
for every wager they take. This commission is known as vig,
which is short for vigorish. It can also be referred to as the
overround or juice. It’s similar in some respects to the house
edge in casino games and it’s basically what gives the
bookmakers an advantage over their customers.

What sets the bookmakers’ advantage apart from the casinos’
advantage is that, unlike the house edge, it can be overcome. In
order to overcome it, though, you first need to understand
exactly how vig works and the effect it has in sports betting.
You should visit our page on the subject of how bookmakers make
money, as this is all about the methods that bookmakers use to
ensure they are profitable. Charging vig is one of these methods
that we explain thoroughly.

Written by Clay Smith

Idiot’s Guide

That’s right - I will be your guide. The good thing about having an idiot for a guide is that I have to make it simple to understand it myself, which means, hopefully, you will understand it as well.

Probability or Odds

Probability
Probability means the risk of an event happening divided by the total number of people at risk of having that event. I will use the example in a recent JAMA article. In a deck of 52 cards, there are 13 spades. So, the risk (or probability) of drawing a card randomly from the deck and getting spades is 13/52 = 0.25 = 25%. The numerator is the number of spades, and the denominator is the total number of cards.

Odds
Odds seems less intuitive. It is the ratio of the probability a thing will happen over the probability it won’t. In the spades example, the probability of drawing a spade is 0.25. The probability of not drawing a spade is 1 - 0.25. So the odds is 0.25/0.75 or 1:3 (or 0.33 or 1/3 pronounced 1 to 3 odds).

Moving back and forth
To go from odds to probability, simply take the numerator/(denominator + numerator). In the spades example, the odds of 1/3 is converted by taking 1/1+3 = 0.25 - and now we are back to probability. To go from probability to odds, simply take the numerator/(denominator-numerator). In the spades example, given that the probability of drawing a spade is 1/4, take 1/(4-1) = 1:3 odds or odds = 0.33.

Filthy 150 Odds

Statistical Significance
If an odds ratio (OR) is 1, it means there is no association between the exposure and outcome. So, if the 95% confidence interval for an OR includes 1, it means the results are not statistically significant. Example, exposure to colored vs white Christmas lights was associated with an increase in jocularity score, OR = 1.2 (95%CI 0.98-1.45). Sorry, this is not statistically significant. Let’s just go with white lights…

Use
Either the OR or risk ratio (RR) could be used in many study types. However, only the OR can be used in case-control studies. Because in order to calculate the RR, one must know the risk. Risk is a probability, a proportion of those exposed with an outcome compared to the total population exposed. This is impossible in a case-control study, in which those who already have the outcome are included without knowing the total population exposed.

Risk Ratio

RR is a very intuitive concept. It is the probability (or risk) of one outcome over the probability (risk) of another. Let’s use a study we covered on JF to discuss this concept. Survival was lower in pediatric patients intubated during arrest compared with those not intubated: 411/1135 (36%) vs 460/1135 (41%). So, the RR is 36.2%/40.5% = 0.89. This means survival was reduced by a factor of 0.89 for pediatric arrest patients who were intubated during arrest vs. those who were not. As an example, if survival was expected to be 40%, then intubating during arrest would reduce it to: 40% x 0.89 = 35.6%.

Let’s do one more example. Supination-flexion (SF) vs hyperpronation (HP) to reduce nursemaid’s elbow was more likely to fail. The risk of failure with SF was 96/351 (27%) vs. 32/350 (9%) with HP. The RR was 3. This has a very intuitive meaning: risk of failure with SF was three times more likely than HP.

Odds Ratio

The OR is a way to present the strength of association between risk factors/exposures and outcomes. If the OR is <1, odds are decreased for an outcome; OR >1 means the odds are increased for a given outcome. Let’s look at the examples again and consider odds.

For pediatric arrest, the risk of survival if intubated during arrest was 411/1135 (36%) vs 460/1135 (41%) if not intubated. Let’s convert to odds and calculate an OR.

• Intubated: 411/1135-411 = 411/724 = 0.57 odds.

• Non-intubated: 460/1135-460 = 460/675 = 0.68 odds.

• So, the OR is 0.57/0.68 = 0.83.

Note, this is very close to the RR (0.89) but is a slight overestimate of the effect on the outcome. This is always the case with the OR compared to the RR - it overestimates the effect.

Take the example of supination-flexion vs hyperpronation for nursemaid’s. The risk of failure for SF was 96/351 vs. 32/350 with HP. Let’s convert this to odds.

• SF: 96/351-96 = 0.376 odds

• HP: 32/350-32 = 0.10 odds

• The OR is 0.376/0.10 = 3.7

Note, the OR overestimates the RR, which was 3. Although one could say the risk of failure using SF is 3 times greater than HP, one could not say, based on the OR, the risk was 3.74 times greater. The OR and RR are not the same. What could be said is that the odds of failure is 3.74 times greater.

Risk Ratio vs Odds Ratio

Whereas RR can be interpreted in a straightforward way, OR can not. A RR of 3 means the risk of an outcome is increased threefold. A RR of 0.5 means the risk is cut in half. But an OR of 3 doesn’t mean the risk is threefold; rather the odds is threefold greater. Interpretation of an OR must be in terms of odds, not probability. Again, the OR will always be an overestimate compared to the RR. However, the RR and OR will be similar for rare outcomes, <10%. But the OR increasingly overestimates RR as outcomes exceed 10%. This is easier to understand with an example.

Pretend a new vape, Vapalicious, is associated with cancer.

• 80/100 people who use it get cancer.

• 20/100 who don’t use it get cancer.

• The risk of getting cancer is 4 times greater in Vapalicious users. RR = 0.8/0.2 = 4

• Note how distorted the OR becomes in this example. OR = (80/20)/(20/80) = 16

What if Vapalicious rarely caused cancer?

150 Toddler Tunes

• 5/1000 get cancer with Vapalicious vs 2.5/1000 for non-users.

• RR = 2.

• OR = 2 as well (actually 2.005)

• With rare outcomes, the RR and OR are very similar.

Why Does This Matter?

This matters because we often equate the OR and RR. Unwary researchers, reviewers, or news media might report a 16-fold increased risk of cancer from Vapalicious. In fact, there was a 4-fold increased risk of cancer from Vapalicous. Not that I plan to use Vapalicious (or any other vape), but a 16-fold vs 4-fold increase is a gross overestimation of the effect.

What Does the OR Mean?

So, what does an OR mean? Here it is in plain language.

Pennzoil 150 Odds

• An OR of 1.2 means there is a 20% increase in the odds of an outcome with a given exposure.

• An OR of 2 means there is a 100% increase in the odds of an outcome with a given exposure. Or this could be stated that there is a doubling of the odds of the outcome. Note, this is not the same as saying a doubling of the risk.

• An OR of 0.2 means there is an 80% decrease in the odds of an outcome with a given exposure.

What Does +250 Odds Mean

Summary

• Odds Ratio is a measure of the strength of association with an exposure and an outcome.

  • OR > 1 means greater odds of association with the exposure and outcome.

  • OR = 1 means there is no association between exposure and outcome.

  • OR < 1 means there is a lower odds of association between the exposure and outcome.

• If the 95% confidence interval for the OR includes 1, the results are not statistically significant.

• OR and RR are not the same.

• OR always overestimate RR, but…

• OR approximates RR when the outcome is rare but markedly overestimates it as outcome exceeds 10%.

References

1. The odds ratio by Bland and Altman, of Bland-Altman plot fame

2. Wikipedia aka source of all statistical knowledge