Value Betting Sports
Systematic and disciplined value betting is the key to beating the bookies and making consistent and long term profits in sports betting! Examples of Value Bets A great example to show how Value Bets. Arbitrage Betting. Sports Arbitrage betting is something that I still use on the occasion as part of my. In the context of sports betting, value can be either positive or negative. Positive value exists when the probability of a wager winning is greater than the probability reflected in the odds. To put it another. In oversimplified terms, sports betting value is when you find a bet that is paying out winners at a better rate than it should. Here’s a simple analogy before we get into the nitty-gritty. Let’s say that you are.
Making consistent money betting is not rocket science, in fact, the methodology behind it is incredibly simple. Value Betting.
In this article, I will show you the simple but effective method of Value Betting, how it works, why it works and how to implement a Value Betting System!
What Are Value Bets?
Value Bets are bets placed at odds that are higher than the actual probability of the market.
The idea is simple and comes from the mathematical concept of Expected Value. Every time we make a bet or make a deal we are always looking for value.
The odds at which we bet, with all bookmakers, align approximately with the real probabilities of that market. Of course, they then adjust the odds to give themselves a small margin.
For example, if the market had a 50% chance of winning, the odds would be $2.00, they would then adjust to add a margin for themselves. We would be left with odds between $1.90 and $1.99, depending on the bookmaker
So, we can deduce that the key to making money investing in sports betting is to know the real probability of an event and always bet with a bookmaker that offers odds higher than that probability. This would be a bet that has value, a Value Bet.
For example, if the market had a 50% chance of winning, and the odds were $2.10 that would be a Value Bet. You are beating the probability.
If the bookmakers knew with 100% certainty the probability of an event the pre-match odds would never waver, it would be mathematically impossible to beat them. In the long run, we would always end up losing our money due to the margin or commission they charge.
Thankfully, sports betting odds are merely individual estimates made by each bookmaker. If we are able to calculate the true probabilities of markets better than the bookmakers, we can find miscalculations and inefficiencies in their odds, and profit.
Systematic and disciplined value betting is the key to beating the bookies and making consistent and long term profits in sports betting!
Examples of Value Bets
A great example to show how Value Bets work and are calculated is by using the probabilities calculated by FiveThirtyEight, a publication with a speciality in statistics and polling. For many sporting events, FiveThirtyEight has begun calculating and sharing their own probabilities.
This is a great example we can use to explain our core concept. Let’s go deeper into how these probabilities work and how we can work with them.
We’ll give FiveThirtyEight far too much credit and assume that the probability they have calculated is perfect. Exactly.
Spoiler: It’s not
Next, we will use these probabilities to work out the ‘Minimum Profitable Odds’. We’ll have a full explanation of Minimum Profitable Odds and what that means coming up.
Essentially, we are just calculating the inverse of the probability to find the lowest odds at which we could still be making a profit on the event, the Minimum Profitable Odds. Based on FiveThirtyEight’s probability calculations.
Result estimated by FiveThirtyEight Minimum Profitable Odds Calculation:
Dortmund 27% = 0.27 ▶ Odds = 1/0.27 = 3.70
Tie 22% = 0.22 ▶ Odds = 1/0.22 = 4.55
Munich 50% = 0.50 ▶ Odds = 1/0.50 = 2.00
That is it. There are your Minimum Profitable Odds. Any bet above those odds is profitable. If we find such a bet, we have found a bet with value. A Value Bet.
How to Find Value Bets?
After we have found our Minimum Profitable Odds, we move on to the next step. Comparing available odds using a bookmaker comparison tool.
Two such tools are:
Based on our calculations we would need to find odds at or above $2.00 on Munich to be profitable – we cannot find any.
For a tie we are looking for odds at or above $4.55 – again, none.
A bet on Dortmund at or above Minimum Profitable Odds would be $3.70 – We have some options!
AsianOdds and MarathonBet are both providing odds of $3.85, well above what we require. A bet on either of these bookmakers is deemed profitable in the long run, using FiveThirtyEight’s probabilities.
Let’s calculate our expected value if we were to take these odds, using the simple calculation below and assuming a bet size of $10.
$10(3.85/3.70 – 1) = $0.40
An Expected Value of $0.40, It doesn’t seem much. However, that is a 4% Yield. On every bet.
We are in the process of writing an article about compound wealth and how a yield of just 4% can produce extraordinary results when paired with high bet volume! Subscribe to the newsletter and we’ll let you know when it is published!
Don’t have an account with either of these bookmakers? We still have 1xBet with a price of $3.78 which is also profitable. It is crucial that you have the ability to compare odds and bet with multiple bookmakers. The more accounts you open, the better.
So what would happen if we miscalculated or didn’t calculate our probability at all, then made a bet on Bayern to win at their best odds of $1.94, using Coolbet? Let’s do the same Expected Value calculation below!
$10(1.94/2.00 – 1) = -$0.30
That is a -3% yield. A road straight to bankruptcy.
The key is consistently betting above the minimum profitable odds. There are certainly more considerations like bookmaker selection, staking method and betting psychology to take into account, we will discuss all of those things in future articles.
But at the core of our profitable betting philosophy is value betting.
The Value Betting System – Conclusion
If you have the ability to understand and calculate the true probability of a sporting event, you can calculate the Minimum Profitable Odds. Once you find that number, it is the simple process of searching the available odds for a betting opportunity.
When you are given a sports betting tip or recommendation, ask the tipster or service in question what the Minimum Profitable Odds are for that tip. Both to make certain you are betting above that figure and to verify the tipster, you cannot calculate a profitable betting opportunity without calculating the Minimum Profitable Odds.
No bet below the Minimum Profitable Odds is a Value bet, no bet made without understanding your Minimum Profitable Odds is a Value Bet. Be diligent and consistent with your Value Betting System.
I hope this article has helped outline the simple laws of Value Betting.
Now we just have to learn how to calculate accurate probabilities… Stay Tuned (and subscribe)
Happy (Value) Betting!
I remember when I first started searching for a proven betting system googling the term “betting systems.”
There was all sorts of progressive staking systems, martingale systems, stop at a winner systems, progressive laying systems. The fact was though that none of these betting systems held up to any long term analysis and would normally blow your bank if you followed them for long enough.
But after researching a bit longer I found a few betting systems that did actually work.
Here are four betting systems that I have used over the years.
Which continue to be profitable in the year 2021.
Proven Betting System 1 – Arbitrage Betting
Sports Arbitrage betting is something that I still use on the occasion as part of my portfolio. Arbitrage betting involves covering every outcome of an event. In order to guarantee a profit no matter the outcome.
Here is an example of a number of arbitrage bets found using the software rebelbetting.
For example if we take one of the arbitrage bets above.
There is a 3.7% arbitrage bet between The New Saints and Bala in the Welsh division.
In the draw no bet market The New Saints could be backed at 1.53 with Marathonbet and Bala could be backed at 3.2 with William Hill.
For every £100 risked across both outcomes a profit of £3.7 could be guaranteed.
With arbitrage betting you can make several of these bets every day and gradually build up your bankroll with almost zero risk.
It is a system that once you understand can be used again and again.
Negatives of arbitrage betting?
The only issue with arbitrage betting is that it has a limited life cycle. Bookmakers will eventually limit arbitrage bettors accounts once they see that they are not going to be profitable customers.
Arbitrage betting is a great way to build up a betting or trading bankroll. Before you move on to betting or trading with exchanges and Asian bookmakers.
Proven Betting System 2 – Value Betting
Value betting is similar to arbitrage betting as it involves exploiting the soft bookmakers. A value bet involves looking for odds that are out of line with the sharp Asian Bookmakers or betting exchanges.
Given that the odds at sharp bookmakers and betting exchanges are quite efficient in big markets. The betting exchanges and sharp Asian bookmakers often offer close to the true odds of an event. Sometimes when there is odds movement on these events soft bookmakers will be slow to move their odds.
Consistently betting on odds above the Asian bookmakers and betting exchanges has proven to be profitable.
Image courtesy ofTrademate Sports.
The advantage that value betting has over arbitrage betting is that you generate a much higher turnover and use lower stakes which may make your accounts last longer then conventional arbitrage betting.
A lot of bookmakers will also offer value accumulators often on a weekly basis as part of odds boosts or special promotions.
Negatives of value betting?
Again the only downside to consistently taking value bets is that soft bookmakers will eventually see that you are able to make money from them and will limit or close your account.
However if you plan to make money from sports betting. Getting banned from soft bookmakers is going to happen whichever way you choose to make money from them.
Proven Betting System 3 – Matched Betting
The popularity of matched betting has exploded in the last few years and with good reason.
Matched betting is probably one the best and easiest ways to generate a good second income online. It involves taking advantage of bookmaker offers to guarantee a profit much like arbitrage.
The big advantage that matched betting has over arbitrage is that is a lot less obvious and harder for bookmaker’s employed traders to spot.
I have covered matched betting in a lot more detail in this article below.
Negatives of matched betting?
There isn’t many downsides to matched betting. Bookmakers will stop giving you promotions eventually. But as discussed before this is what happens when you become a profitable sports bettor.
So there you have 3 proven betting systems that are currently working in 2020. Which should also prove be profitable in the long term.
Each of these betting systems involve exploiting soft bookmakers.
This is really the best way to start making money from the sports betting markets and allows you to build up a nice trading bankroll or good second income.
Proven Betting System 4 – Betting On Team News
One proven betting strategy that you might not know is reacting quickly to team news.
Odds can rapidly change on the basis of team news.
If you have a good knowledge of the teams that are playing, then you will often be able to secure yourself a value bet.
Here is a good example of how odds can change when a teams lineup is announced.
In this example I have highlighted the point at which team news was announced.
This was a Europa League between Arsenal and Standard Liege.
Arsenal announced a weaker side then expected, from this news the odds on Arsenal drifted quite significantly before the game started.
If you were familiar with the teams and reacted to the information you would have been able to secure yourself a value bet on Standard Liege. Due to the fact that Arsenal’s odds were drifting so the odds on the draw and Standard Liege would have to shorten.
This is a really effective strategy and if you have access to betting exchanges you can secure yourself a profit before the game even starts.
Here are two videos which explain this strategy in more detail.
Watch this video on YouTube
Which betting systems have you found to work best?
Are there any that are missing from this list?
Let me know in the comments below.